Russia-Ukraine Conflict

By: Jinsar Ali Jamro
The end of the cold war suddenly freed people from the influence of two blocs headed by the Soviet Union and the United States. After the precipitous collapse of the Soviet Union, the US emerged as the sole superpower in the world. Thus, international institutionalism once more gained ground and the states coalesced to bury the hatchet with the help of international institutions. Despite such efforts, the armed conflicts, wars of aggression and attrition and the invasions in the name of self-determinition, self defence, military occupations, and genocide remain pervasive in the new world order up to now. Europe has come under the serious dire straits after the Russian invasion on Ukraine, the escalation keeps aggravating. Historically, Ukraine remained one of the fifteen union territories of the Soviet Socialist Republics, due to this the Eastern side of Ukraine remained at the back and call of Russia due to shared history and culture, and ethnicity. Whereas, the Western region of Ukraine has excessive penchant for Europe and wanted to be the part of European military, economic and social alliances. Now this schism has damaged Ukraine badly internally for a long time in which 13,000 people have died and 14 lac people are displaced due to this conflict. At the external front this Euro-Penchant became a casus belli for Russia to justify the war on Ukraine.
Undeniably no one can ignore the numerous historic and strategic factors that contributed significantly to this whooping escalation, but among all, Ukraine’s move to seek membership in NATO (North Atlantic and Treaty Organization) and European Union stands out. Surprisingly, the entrance of Baltic states (bordering Ukraine from western side) into NATO and the EU compelled Ukraine to expedite efforts to acquire accreditation of these alliances immediately. Now, Russia this time took Ukraine to task and issued various caveats and warned Ukraine against its approachment to seek NATO membership. But Ukraine adamantly remained firm to its position even still today. The Kremlin is of the view that it is the containment of Russia by the US and other European countries. Moscow is skeptical that NATO can be used as a bandwagon by the US somewhat to the similar role it has played elsewhere in the world.
Furthermore Moscow is suspicious that Ukraine’s approbation in NATO might result in compliance of Russia over the territory of Crimea. However, Putin reproached Biden, and Macron, but both countries vehemently welcomed Ukraine’s decision which further added insult to the injury. What is even more deplorable is that Moscow became unwilling to alter its deportment and started behaving aggressively like never ever before within the last two decades. Now Putin’s announcement of putting nuclear force on high alert will be used as bargaining power in Belarus in peace talks. Either, Russia through this nuclear deterrence aims to browbeat the US and its allies from going any further with economic sanctions and trade ostracization.
Now, whether the US in this conflict will support the Thucidides trap or not it will be unveiled soon. The US responded though not in the actual version perhaps it has vigorously imposed draconian economic sanctions. It may be highly likely that the US will only rely on isolationism along with economic sanctions on Moscow in reprisal of the Ukraine invasion. However China has behaved realistically in dealing with Russia and the West in the Ukraine matter. Beijing is not going to follow Russian recognition of the separatist regions of Ukraine despite being exponents of the same ideology and political system. Beijing’s recognition of these regions might result in the recognition of Taiwan by the US and the European states which will be a diplomatic defeat to China. Surprisingly, Pakistan has shown neutrality in this conflict which was clearly manifested by PM Imran Khan visit in even a tense time. After the visit, Pakistan has condemned the Russian attack and calls for peaceful settlement of the issue was actually an effort to send the message to both that Islamabad is not going to be part of any bloc. This posture of Pakistan’s foreign policy might be the foremost footstep to pivot away from geo-politics to geo-economics strategy. For how long Islamabad will stick to the Nehruvian approach of non-alignment will be an acid taste especially for the states like Pakistan that are heavily dependending diplomatically and economically on the US.
Importantly Russian bellicosity is widely criticized by the world including Europe. The infringement of any rogue state should be condemned not in the case of Russia and in future for China only, but whosoever tries to transgress the state’s sovereignty must be held accountable. Additionally, language, response and condemnation should be the same for every aggressor, invader and rogue state, elsewise all will have to pay a heavy price for the biased attitude of dominant powers and institutions. The ongoing Russian aggressive intrusion in Ukraine and immediate accreditation to the fiefdoms controlled by the separatists remind to somewhat similar justification of “right to self-determination”, the Wilsonian idea, that the US propagated oftenly in the world to hammer out its tutelage and even recently it has recognized illegal occupation of Israel on Syrian and Palestianian lands based on this principle. Moreover, Putin has also claimed that Ukraine wanting to develop nuclear weapons is again no more unlike Washington’s claim about Saddam Hussain’s intentions of developing weapons of mass destruction. Presciently, what Moscow has done has all been emulated from Washington, but definitely it will be dealt differently from it by the world and international organizations.
Unfortunately, institutions have come to naught miserably in preventing conflicts for which reason these were established and regarded as the key actors in international politics. Thus, the institutions are excoriated for its inability to act where needed and lack of UN’s intercession in the dispute of Ukraine. The UN must have acted earlier, not after the outbreak of the conflict. Although the performance of international institutions is not satisfactory. Fortunately much can be done now through mutual cooperation. The streamlining of institutions has become the necessity of an hour in order to live up to the expectations of developing countries.The institutions particularly the UN should take prudent steps to curb such concocted incursions to deter the annexations of developing countries. The UN should studiously carve out strategy in this matter and must wean both parties off towards the dialogue in order ward off further chaos and ferocity. For how long, the world will bear the brunt of aggressors again depends on the efficacy of world law in bringing rogue states to book.
Author name is Jinsar Ali Jamro
Student of BSIR at Iqra University Islamabad
He writes on national and international affairs
He can be reached at; jamrojinsar102@gmail.com a