LPG Air Mix project for Gilgit

Ex CM Hafeez laid the foundation stone of the greenfield LPG Air Mix project for Gilgit during his tenure in the year 2016 with great fanfare. The public in general and senior officials of various government departments who have been braving the chilly and torturous winters of Gilgit should have been excited with the thoughts of having uninterrupted gas connected to their homes the way they have seen in Pindi / Islamabad.
SNGPL, who is the project proponent had ill-advised the CM and made fool of public through this insane project which is nothing more than a hoax, prank or fraud.
The heat value (calorific value) of LPG is approximately more than two times that of natural gas. Air-Gas Mixing Plant mixes LPG (Propane and/or Butane) with compressed air to lower calorific value so that natural gas can be easily and instantaneously replaced with the LPG Air mixture without need to replace burners and other associated combustion systems.
LPG Air mix also known as synthetic natural gas (SNG) is used as back up (replacement) for natural gas in critical industries to mitigate the risk of natural gas flow failure due to pipeline maintenance, other works or breakdown. Also, it can be used as temporary supply to residential areas of affluent people who can afford costlier SNG and where natural gas piping is installed, connections provided, and supply of natural gas is awaited.

There is no justification, whatsoever for investment of over 2 billion Pak Rupees for LPG Air mixing plant and the huge pipeline network across length and breadth of Gilgit city, Additionally, there are serious technical constraints due to less vapor pressure of LPG at lower temperatures. Ambient temperature of Gilgit is lower than 5 Deg C in winter and LPG (Propane) will liquify at 5 Deg C /65 PSIG. The entire project will fail in winter as sufficient pressure will not be available to press SNG from Chilmis Das to far flung areas in Kargah, Baseen and Jutial. An insane solution to the problem of low vapor pressure would be to install electrical heat tracing along the pipeline that will further increase both CAPEX and OPEX.
Chief Minister and the Chief Secretary as the custodians of public interest are requested to ask the proponent of the project SNGPL following questions as part of cost benefit analysis and decide whether to exit or proceed with the project :

1. What will be the price per KG of LPG in case of SNG (approximately 50% LPG / 50% Air) to the end user after considering cost of LPG, depreciation (CAPEX recovery) and OPEX (LPG Air Mixing Plant) compared to conventional LPG supplied in cylinders. LPG cylinders to be assumed to have been filled locally from storage tanks and not transported from Pindi/Islamabad.
2. Since there is no natural gas in Gilgit and not expected in the foreseeable future, there is no question of any arrangement like SNG to replace natural gas. Then why SNGPL wants to mix air with LPG? Why cannot the LPG alone be supplied through pipeline(s)

3. SNGPL has envisaged 40KM long 8-inch MS pipe and 19 KM long 12-inch MS pipe for the transmission and distribution of the SNG. What will be the pressure of SNG at the sender during winter when temperature can be as low as 5 Deg C? Will the pressure be sufficient in winter to press SNG to the end users in Baseen and Kargah through 8-inch, 25 KM long (or more) of pipeline with a large number of elbows that cause higher pressure loss?

At the end we should appreciate the concern shown by Government of Pakistan and honorable Chief Minister(s) for being sensitive and concerned about the difficulties faced by the public at large in GB in harsh winter and their willingness to spend sizeable amounts to address them. SNGP has interacted and apprised various stakeholders in Gilgit including GDA, KIU, P&D Department, Water and Power Department etc. It should be a matter of serious concern that all these departments and institutions despite been technical in nature could not ask for cost benefit analysis which is mandatory for such projects.
It is strongly suggested that the LPG storage tanks and the 40 Kanal plot be put to good use by establishing a state of art LPG cylinder filling station and supplying the customers in Gilgit and surrounding areas through pick-ups / vehicles of appropriate size.

SAJJAD HAIDER
PE, PBA-PMI, PMP-PMI, CMRP-SMRP, Smart Manufacturing MIT USA
PROJECT AND ENGINEERING MANAGEMENT EXPERT
ROYAL COMMISSION, YANBU, KSA